城乡一体化研究现状与展望

工业化和城市化发展到今天，有一个问题已日益显现，这就是城乡协调发展，城乡一体化的问题。实现城乡一体化．是消除城乡二元结构，消除城乡差别，促进城乡共同发展的必经之路，也是缩小贫富差距，实现社会稳定的政治举措；对城乡一体化问题进行了归纳和梳理。     

工程造价动态快速预测的模糊数学方法

在已有的应用模糊数学原理进行工程造价快速预测方法的基础上,本文提出了将待估工程和典型工程以统一时间基准年来考虑的动态快速,并以工程实例说明了该法同样可以估算建造要素的单方消耗量。     

基于改进多尺度阈值去噪的人民币汇率实证分析

考虑到金融时间序列中噪声的干扰,有必要在金融建模研究中做适当的去噪处理。不同于传统的小波阈值去噪,本文应用改进的多尺度阈值技术对人民币/美元汇率序列进行去噪处理,并基于不同误差分布情况下综合分析,确定ARMA（1,1）-GARCH（1,1）-T为最佳拟合模型,最终给出预测效果,证实了应用新的多尺度阈值方法去噪后的汇率模型预测精度较高。     

基于灰色关联的我国金融风险评价体系研究

文章结合我国经济运行的实际情况,构建了一个完整的金融风险评价体系,并对2008年危机前后我国金融风险状况进行实证检验。结果表明,危机前我国金融体系综合评价偏离最优参考数列严重,而2010年关联程度最大。依据检验结果提出了抑制通胀、积极协调人民币升值幅度等政策性建议。     

Research on Measurement and Forecast of Hong Kong＇ s RMB Offshore Market

近年来,香港人民币离岸市场迅速发展。随着市场规模的不断扩大,其波动对内地金融市场的冲击不容小视。本文运用VAR模型和状态空间模型,参照国际经验数据,模拟分析度量了香港人民币离岸市场对内地金融市场的风险,并在此基础上预测了未来风险多发的时间区间。     

准备金评估的随机性Munich链梯法及其改进——基于Bootstrap方法的实证分析

传统链梯法是未决赔款准备金评估最常用的确定性方法,Munich链梯法基于Mack模型的假设,利用已决赔款和已报案赔款的相关性调整进展因子,有效减少了链梯法分别基于已决赔款和已报案赔款得到的未决赔款准备金之间的差异。本文在系统介绍Munich链梯法的基础上,结合模型假设,提出了两种基于Bootstrap方法的随机性Munich链梯法,并通过精算实务中的数值实例应用R软件加以实证分析。本文的研究对保险公司准备金负债评估的准确性和充足性具有重要参考价值。     

Asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression

Small sample properties of asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for VAR models are evaluated and compared. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the bootstrap prediction region based on the percentile-t method outperforms its asymptotic and other bootstrap alternatives in small samples. It provides the most accurate assessment of future uncertainty under both normal and non-normal innovations. The use of an asymptotic prediction region may result in a serious under-estimation of future uncertainty when the sample size is small. When the model is near non-stationary, the use of the bootstrap region based on the percentile-t method is recommended, although extreme care should be taken when it is used for medium to long-term forecasting.     

Finding the future: Crowdsourcing versus the Delphi technique

When managers are unable to use quantifiable time series data to make forecasts or decide on uncertainties, they can either rely on their own intuition and judgment or resort to the insights of others. The Delphi technique is a well-known forecasting technique that relies on the pooled perspectives of experts to predict uncertain quantities or the outcomes of events. This relies on polling the opinions of experts, aggregating these opinions, feeding them back to the responding experts along with their own estimates, and having them repeat their judgment calls until some level of consensus is reached. More recently, however, the opinions of many others who are not experts have been sought on a range of topics in a loose assembly of similar techniques bundled under the title of crowdsourcing. This article compares Delphi and crowdsourcing as prediction and estimation tools for managers. It notes their differences and similarities, and provides a simple tool for executives to use in deciding whether or not to use these tools, and if so, which tool or combination of them will work best in a given situation.     

Evaluating corporate social responsibility of airlines using entropy weight and grey relation analysis

This paper applies entropy weight and grey relation analysis to evaluate corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance of eight Chinese major airlines. This paper intends to achieve two main aims. First, this study uses entropy to find the relative weights of performance measures of CSR. In so doing, we find that on-time performance, accident rate, flight frequency, growth of employees revenue, and employees revenue are relatively most important measures. Second, based on the results of entropy analysis, this study ranks the airlines in terms of CSR performance by grey relation analysis. This result shows that most of the larger state-controlled airlines perform better in performance of CSR. Furthermore, the private airline has made relatively large improvement in its CSR performance. In addition, the listed airlines are better than non-listed airlines in CSR performance.     

福建港口物流影响因素分析和发展策略探究

通过选取有统计资料的影响因素，应用灰色关联度分析法，对福建港口物流量和这些因素进行关联度分析，分析了工业发展、集输运、泊位建设等方面存在的问题，并提出了发展临港工业、整合社会和港口的物流资源、建设先进的信息网络、完善集疏运体系、加快港口基础设施建设等促进福建港口物流发展的策略。